It's been a while since we did an update on some of the things we've done with our portfolio, so it's high time we did another one.
A lot of stuff has happened since that last update (which you can read here). The most notable things are that Bitcoin went on a huge bullrun to almost $20,000, there was a lot of "Bitcoin cash vs Bitcoin" arguments, and then in December, the altcoin market woke up from a multi-month slumber and decided to give itself a feast to celebrate.
During this time, we rebalanced our portfolio quite a lot, and were pleased to see that many of the ICO coins that we moaned about in the previous update were finally starting to show signs up life.
Enigma Catalyst, Cindicator, Cobinhood, AirSwap, AirToken, DecentBet, and a few others finally showed signed of life, and we were able to take profits on some, completely sell off others, and take our initial out in the rest.
The information provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be seen as investing advice. Our opinions on this site are only that, if you are considering an investment into cryptocurrency or anything we speak about on this site, please advise a trusted financial professional first, before doing so.
Overall, our portfolio blossomed very nicely and without putting much FIAT into crypto during this period (We spent less than $10,000 in total), our portfolio rose to all new heights.
Of course, right now we are in another dip/consolidation period after the terrible correction of last week, but we're still up by a large sum.
At its peak before that correction, our portfolio was up almost 14x in terms of FIAT put into crypto vs total value in USD.
Even now, we're up about 9-10x.
So all in all, it's been a pretty good 6-7 month period.
And that's putting it lightly. It's actually been fantastic.
In the rest of this article we're going to cover a few things:
- A roundup of the moves we made with our portfolio
- Thoughts on market cycles in general
- Opinion on the current climate
Please note, as well as giving these updates on our portfolio in general, we've also started developing some strategies for picking up under the radar coins. Our first post on this subject is here.
If you've never invested in an one before, we recommend you read our guide to investing in ICOs here.
Moves Made Since Last Update
Since the last update, hundreds of new subscribers have joined the Cryptosis family, so we'll give a very quick recap of our ICO holdings and moves from November onwards.
The chart below is basically where we were at in the buildup to this update.
To explain this, the "Amount put in" is in Ethereum unless otherwise stated (such as with Redpulse). For "Profit Taken", we've listed the percentage of coins we sold, and how much we got for them.
So with 0x, we sold 33% of our tokens and got 6 ETH, meaning we doubled our initial 3 ETH stake, and kept 66% of the tokens.
With Redpulse, we sold everything and turned 27 Neo into 54. With Astronaut, we sold 50% of our tokens, turning 4 ETH into 6.
We definitely sold Redpulse too early, because it ended up rising a lot more in price and we should have taken at least 100 Neo off the table, but this is all part of the learning process and we took profits either way.
Nobody ever went broke taking profits.
So while we sold too early (and as you'll see later, we sold a few others too early as well), we don't mind.
There are always new opportunities every day, and the more moves you make, the more you learn. If you get to make some moves, learn some lessons, and not lose money in the process, that's a pretty good day from where we're standing.
So, what happened with the rest of the projects?
Let's update that chart:
So to explain that a bit more:
1.) We recently sold 50% of our remaining 0x for 10 ETH total. This brings the total 0x trade to 66% sold, for 16 ETH in total.
This means we've turned that initial 3 ETH (About $850 at the time) into at least 16 ETH (About $16,000 at the time of writing), and we still have 33% of the 0x left.
Can't complain with that trade at all.
We've since put some of that 10 ETH into new coins and ICOs.
2.) We pretty much broke even with Cobinhood. After losing faith in the project for various reasons, and wanting to liquidate the funds to invest in something else, we ended up selling COB far too early.
Turning 5 ETH into 5.1 ETH isn't exactly a loss, but if we'd waited a few weeks we could have turned it into 10 or 15 ETH, which would have made the waiting much better.
Still, we put that ETH into other projects which did end up growing, so we have to consider it a learning experience which turned out ok.
There is always opportunity cost involved with keeping your tokens (which is another reason we sold 50% more 0x).
So if you sell a coin for 2x profit, and it later goes up another 2x, it hurts. But if you put that profit into another coin which goes up 5x, it can turn out for the best.
Still, selling early is a bit of a common theme for the first few weeks of Nov/Dec.
3.) With Cindicator, we did similar, but made a bit more profit.
CND has been on several good runs, and recently got pumped by PalmBeach, so we definitely could have profited more if we didn't sell too early.
We think that ultimately the reason we sold COB and CND too early was a mixture of:
- Wanting to liquidate to put the funds in other places (nothing necessarily wrong with that)
- Having missed the opportunity for a quick flip, we lost interest in the projects and
- To some extent the market was in a boring period and we just wanted some action. Just like beginner poker players who are guilty of playing too many hands.
In hindsight, the best move would have been to sell some, but not all of our CND and COB positions. This would still have given us funds to place elsewhere, but would have allowed us to benefit from the runs they went on later.
Hindsight is always 20-20 though.
With BlockV, Kyber, and Astronaut, we didn't lose faith in the projects, we just felt they'd made a nice gain and wanted to take out some profits, particularly BlockV.
At least we learned our lesson with BlockV and Kyber and left enough on the table to take advantage of future gains. This seems to be the best strategy overall (and matches what we did with 0x).
With Neu, AST, Air, and DBET, we almost took profits on some of these too, because they were all up around 2x at some point, but have since dropped down again, so we'll let them ride for longer.
What we've learned from all of this is that eventually the projects should still become profitable (as long as you didn't invest in a scam ICO in the first place). If market conditions aren't great and alts are not particularly bullish, then it might be better to just wait it out, unless you need the funds for something else.
Further Investments Made
As well as the moves highlighted above, we also made some more investments:
- DeepBrainChain (ICO) - We flipped this for 5x. It ended up skyrocketing again shortly after, but making 5x on a 2-week trade is not bad at all and grew our Neo stack very nicely.
- VeChain - We learned about this one in late December and put 2.5 ETH in. It's now worth almost 10 ETH, so we are probably going to sell off around 50% now and let the rest ride. We're pretty bullish on VeChain long term, otherwise we'd take more profits.
- ZenCash and Zcoin Nodes - We also invested in both Zencash and Zcoin and got some nodes set up. We'll likely do separate node-based updates on these later.
- Loopring - Shortly after our last update we bought a pretty large amount of LRC, and have done nicely with it since then. Before the altcoin rally ended a few weeks ago, we were up about 4x.
- Zeepin (ICO) - We wanted to continue our Neo ICO flips so put some into Zeepin.
- Thekey (Presale) - Same as above, but we found Thekey at presale and are hoping to do very well with it.
- Elastos (ICO) - We only had a small allocation for this and put the max 23 NEO in.
- Shipchain (Presale) - We know a lot of people who are involved in international shipping reliant businesses and were quite bullish on this opportunity, so we jumped in.
- Polymath - This one is an interesting opportunity that could do very well when it hits exchanges.
One thing we noticed recently is that it's becoming increasingly competitive to get into crowdsales and presales. With the sudden explosion in Ethereum pricing, a lot of ICOs had to cancel their crowdsales or end them early due to hitting their hardcaps.
Not only that, but as more and more people get into cryptocurrencies, it's becoming increasingly important to sign up for whitelists as soon as possible.
One website we've benefitted from is ICOwhitelists.com, a great website that helps you keep up to date on which whitelists are opening and closing soon.
We'll give more details on these and how they panned out in a future update. For now, we need to move on!
The Markets Move In Cycles
It doesn't take a genius to know that the markets move in cycles, and that crypto doesn't go up (or down, thankfully) forever. Back when we studied Technical Analysis a few years ago, we were told that markets always moved in three parts:
They don't have to be in the same order every time, but on average, there will always be these three things in any cycle.
Right now, we've seen the huge growth period in December and early January, we've seen an equally huge correction since then, and we believe that right now we're in a consolidation period. Basically, neither the bulls or bears are in control.
Does that mean the next phase will be growth?
Not necessarily, because they don't always happen in the same order, but what it does mean is that the current phase of the market is perfectly normal and healthy. So while some people may be pointing to Bitcoin futures expiring as a sign of the huge dip in price it's had recently (and we believe in this theory too), it's also a normal thing that happens.
What's interesting though, is that the pattern between alts and bitcoin seems to be changing. For most of 2017, when Bitcoin was on a bull run, alts would bleed as people moved into BTC. Equally, when Bitcoin was stagnant, alts would boom. And of course, when Bitcoin tanked, alts tended to tank too, because:
1.) Alts are usually priced in Bitcoin, so they naturally go down in USD price when Bitcoin does and
2.) Bitcoin is still used as a way of gauging the overall strength and sentiments in the market.
In late 2017 and early 2018, we've seen that pattern changing slightly, although it's still true that Bitcoin can be used to gauge sentiment in the market.
Another thing to pay attention to is Bitcoin dominance. We've noticed that a lot of people often use it differently. When BTC dominance was at an all-time high in November, people saw it as evidence that altcoins were finished. When BTC dominance fell to an all time low shortly after, people saw it as evidence that Bitcoin itself was finished.
Maybe a better way to look at it would be, when domiance is at an all-time high or low, that a reversal might be on the cards? That definitely seems to have some truth to it.
In the chart above, the top red line shows the most recent high of BTC dominance, which ended on December 7th 2017. What happened after that? Altcoins went on a rally.
The bottom appears to be around Jan 11 2018, which is when the market started to turn and the altcoin rally looked to end. Perhaps the next bullrun will start with another Bitcoin run? It seems likely.
We've also noticed that capital tends to flow down a funnel.
1.) Bitcoin rises in price
2.) Ethereum and sometimes Litecoin follow it
3.) Alts then follow.
Thoughts On The Market Right Now
By the time this post is published, anything could have changed, but right now we feel the market has uncertainty in it, and is in a consolidation period. It may dip some more, or it may rise some more, but nobody really knows (hence the uncertainty).
With the next Bitcoin futures expiry coming up on Friday, the market could start to rise again soon after that...or it could not rise until mid-February.
Either way, there's no real need to panic. We're just going to take a breather, wait for the next signs of a bull market returning, and keep researching projects in the meantime.
Thanks again for following us this far, and we'll try and make our next update sooner than we did last time.